Decision-1

Microsoft · microsoft/microsoft-decision-1 · added 20 Oct 2026

Decision-1 by Microsoft ranks #10 of 17 AI decision models on the DecisionBench Odds benchmark (weighing risk), with score 37.4%. View on OpenRouter.

Odds rank: #10 of 17
Score: 37.4%
Value captured: 63.1%
Odds within 2×: 11.7%
Odds off by: ×15.7
Leans: over ×10.3

60 cases · best action 40% of the time · acts on its own odds 72% of the time · $0.0195 per 1,000 cases · 381 ms per case

Every case

The probability the model gave and the right one (✓ when its odds are within 2×), the action it picked, and how much of the available expected payoff that action earns.

Case	Situation	Probability	Action	Value
O-1000 · Easy	Online order #512643: $120 basket	✕ 1% / 2%	✕ cancel the order → ship the order	23%
O-1001 · Rare outcome	Small-business loan application: $10,000 over 3 years	✕ 75% / 9%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1002 · Adds up	Boiler feed pump on line 7, 6 years in service	✕ 99% / 81%	✓ replace the part now	100%
O-1003 · Missing clue	Inbound demo request, $9,850 first-year deal	✕ 80% / 9%	✕ assign a sales rep → drop the lead	0%
O-1004 · Red herring	Online order #428497: $170 basket	✕ 56% / 11%	✕ cancel the order → ship the order	0%
O-1005 · High stakes	Small-business loan application: $5,000 over 5 years	✕ 2% / 8%	✓ decline the loan	100%
O-1006 · Easy	Inbound demo request, $8,450 first-year deal	✓ 1% / 1%	✕ send the automated email sequence → drop the lead	92%
O-1007 · Rare outcome	Online order #527243: $100 basket	✕ 84% / 25%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1008 · Adds up	Small-business loan application: $128,000 over 2 years	✕ 96% / 44%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	91%
O-1009 · Missing clue	Conveyor gearbox on line 7, 4 years in service	✕ 95% / 43%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	95%
O-1010 · Red herring	Inbound demo request, $5,500 first-year deal	✕ 82% / 34%	✓ send the automated email sequence	100%
O-1011 · High stakes	Online order #736444: $190 basket	✕ 1% / 6%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1012 · Easy	Press motor on line 9, 12 years in service	✕ 96% / 30%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	46%
O-1013 · Rare outcome	Inbound demo request, $2,200 first-year deal	✕ 15% / 5%	✓ drop the lead	100%
O-1014 · Adds up	Online order #735461: $310 basket	✕ 98% / 68%	✓ cancel the order	100%
O-1015 · Missing clue	Small-business loan application: $22,000 over 3 years	✕ 95% / 6%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1016 · Red herring	Conveyor gearbox on line 2, 10 years in service	✕ 35% / 10%	✕ replace the part now → keep it running	0%
O-1017 · High stakes	Inbound demo request, $3,450 first-year deal	✓ 3% / 4%	✕ drop the lead → assign a sales rep	0%
O-1018 · Easy	Small-business loan application: $6,000 over 5 years	✓ 2% / 4%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1019 · Rare outcome	Coolant pump on line 4, 10 years in service	✕ 65% / 8%	✓ stop it for an inspection	100%
O-1020 · Adds up	Inbound demo request, $5,800 first-year deal	✕ 97% / 46%	✕ assign a sales rep → send the automated email sequence	64%
O-1021 · Missing clue	Online order #590697: $95 basket	✕ 99% / 24%	✕ cancel the order → hold for manual review	12%
O-1022 · Red herring	Small-business loan application: $21,000 over 3 years	✕ 99% / 37%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	97%
O-1023 · High stakes	Coolant pump on line 2, 15 years in service	✓ 1% / 2%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	0%
O-1024 · Easy	Online order #426231: $175 basket	✕ 98% / 52%	✓ cancel the order	100%
O-1025 · Rare outcome	Small-business loan application: $77,000 over 2 years	✕ 82% / 6%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1026 · Adds up	Conveyor gearbox on line 9, 14 years in service	✕ 99% / 80%	✓ replace the part now	100%
O-1027 · Missing clue	Inbound demo request, $3,200 first-year deal	✕ 99% / 22%	✕ assign a sales rep → drop the lead	0%
O-1028 · Red herring	Online order #599758: $73 basket	✕ 65% / 16%	✕ cancel the order → ship the order	89%
O-1029 · High stakes	Small-business loan application: $112,000 over 3 years	✕ 29% / 10%	✓ decline the loan	100%
O-1030 · Easy	Inbound demo request, $31,000 first-year deal	✕ 44% / 5%	✓ send the automated email sequence	100%
O-1031 · Rare outcome	Online order #973229: $545 basket	✕ 80% / 23%	✕ cancel the order → hold for manual review	84%
O-1032 · Adds up	Small-business loan application: $21,000 over 2 years	✕ 98% / 52%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	81%
O-1033 · Missing clue	Boiler feed pump on line 2, 4 years in service	✕ 96% / 31%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	90%
O-1034 · Red herring	Inbound demo request, $2,400 first-year deal	✕ 53% / 12%	✕ drop the lead → send the automated email sequence	72%
O-1035 · High stakes	Online order #380045: $700 basket	✓ 13% / 8%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1036 · Easy	Press motor on line 2, 10 years in service	✕ 4% / 1%	✕ replace the part now → keep it running	0%
O-1037 · Rare outcome	Inbound demo request, $3,250 first-year deal	✕ 35% / 9%	✓ drop the lead	100%
O-1038 · Adds up	Online order #820072: $71 basket	✕ 99% / 87%	✓ cancel the order	100%
O-1039 · Missing clue	Small-business loan application: $52,000 over 5 years	✓ 8% / 6%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1040 · Red herring	Coolant pump on line 1, 14 years in service	✕ 62% / 20%	✕ replace the part now → keep it running	0%
O-1041 · High stakes	Inbound demo request, $2,700 first-year deal	✕ 0% / 4%	✕ drop the lead → assign a sales rep	97%
O-1042 · Easy	Small-business loan application: $17,000 over 5 years	✕ 95% / 43%	✓ decline the loan	100%
O-1043 · Rare outcome	Boiler feed pump on line 7, 14 years in service	✕ 75% / 21%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	82%
O-1044 · Adds up	Inbound demo request, $2,650 first-year deal	✕ 97% / 50%	✕ assign a sales rep → send the automated email sequence	70%
O-1045 · Missing clue	Online order #739291: $185 basket	✕ 99% / 57%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1046 · Red herring	Small-business loan application: $15,000 over 3 years	✕ 35% / 12%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	0%
O-1047 · High stakes	Air compressor on line 8, 14 years in service	✕ 1% / 6%	✓ stop it for an inspection	100%
O-1048 · Easy	Online order #728467: $440 basket	✕ 98% / 53%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1049 · Rare outcome	Small-business loan application: $11,000 over 2 years	✕ 68% / 6%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1050 · Adds up	Air compressor on line 7, 7 years in service	✕ 100% / 84%	✓ replace the part now	100%
O-1051 · Missing clue	Inbound demo request, $3,250 first-year deal	✕ 98% / 11%	✕ assign a sales rep → drop the lead	0%
O-1052 · Red herring	Online order #552300: $43 basket	✕ 82% / 22%	✕ cancel the order → ship the order	53%
O-1053 · High stakes	Small-business loan application: $13,000 over 5 years	✕ 44% / 6%	✓ decline the loan	100%
O-1054 · Easy	Inbound demo request, $84,500 first-year deal	✕ 82% / 39%	✓ assign a sales rep	100%
O-1055 · Rare outcome	Online order #914426: $705 basket	✕ 71% / 20%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1056 · Adds up	Small-business loan application: $114,000 over 2 years	✕ 97% / 44%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	91%
O-1057 · Missing clue	Boiler feed pump on line 7, 14 years in service	✕ 3% / 8%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	39%
O-1058 · Red herring	Inbound demo request, $3,750 first-year deal	✕ 88% / 19%	✕ assign a sales rep → send the automated email sequence	17%
O-1059 · High stakes	Online order #381274: $720 basket	✓ 10% / 7%	✓ hold for manual review	100%

Probability: the model's answer / the right one. Value: 100% for the best action, 0% for the worst. A case is worked through on the Odds page.

Decision-1 across all benchmarks · How Odds works

Every case

The probability the model gave and the right one (✓ when its odds are within 2×), the action it picked, and how much of the available expected payoff that action earns.

Case	Situation	Probability	Action	Value
O-1000 · Easy	Online order #512643: $120 basket	✕ 1% / 2%	✕ cancel the order → ship the order	23%
O-1001 · Rare outcome	Small-business loan application: $10,000 over 3 years	✕ 75% / 9%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1002 · Adds up	Boiler feed pump on line 7, 6 years in service	✕ 99% / 81%	✓ replace the part now	100%
O-1003 · Missing clue	Inbound demo request, $9,850 first-year deal	✕ 80% / 9%	✕ assign a sales rep → drop the lead	0%
O-1004 · Red herring	Online order #428497: $170 basket	✕ 56% / 11%	✕ cancel the order → ship the order	0%
O-1005 · High stakes	Small-business loan application: $5,000 over 5 years	✕ 2% / 8%	✓ decline the loan	100%
O-1006 · Easy	Inbound demo request, $8,450 first-year deal	✓ 1% / 1%	✕ send the automated email sequence → drop the lead	92%
O-1007 · Rare outcome	Online order #527243: $100 basket	✕ 84% / 25%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1008 · Adds up	Small-business loan application: $128,000 over 2 years	✕ 96% / 44%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	91%
O-1009 · Missing clue	Conveyor gearbox on line 7, 4 years in service	✕ 95% / 43%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	95%
O-1010 · Red herring	Inbound demo request, $5,500 first-year deal	✕ 82% / 34%	✓ send the automated email sequence	100%
O-1011 · High stakes	Online order #736444: $190 basket	✕ 1% / 6%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1012 · Easy	Press motor on line 9, 12 years in service	✕ 96% / 30%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	46%
O-1013 · Rare outcome	Inbound demo request, $2,200 first-year deal	✕ 15% / 5%	✓ drop the lead	100%
O-1014 · Adds up	Online order #735461: $310 basket	✕ 98% / 68%	✓ cancel the order	100%
O-1015 · Missing clue	Small-business loan application: $22,000 over 3 years	✕ 95% / 6%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1016 · Red herring	Conveyor gearbox on line 2, 10 years in service	✕ 35% / 10%	✕ replace the part now → keep it running	0%
O-1017 · High stakes	Inbound demo request, $3,450 first-year deal	✓ 3% / 4%	✕ drop the lead → assign a sales rep	0%
O-1018 · Easy	Small-business loan application: $6,000 over 5 years	✓ 2% / 4%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1019 · Rare outcome	Coolant pump on line 4, 10 years in service	✕ 65% / 8%	✓ stop it for an inspection	100%
O-1020 · Adds up	Inbound demo request, $5,800 first-year deal	✕ 97% / 46%	✕ assign a sales rep → send the automated email sequence	64%
O-1021 · Missing clue	Online order #590697: $95 basket	✕ 99% / 24%	✕ cancel the order → hold for manual review	12%
O-1022 · Red herring	Small-business loan application: $21,000 over 3 years	✕ 99% / 37%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	97%
O-1023 · High stakes	Coolant pump on line 2, 15 years in service	✓ 1% / 2%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	0%
O-1024 · Easy	Online order #426231: $175 basket	✕ 98% / 52%	✓ cancel the order	100%
O-1025 · Rare outcome	Small-business loan application: $77,000 over 2 years	✕ 82% / 6%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1026 · Adds up	Conveyor gearbox on line 9, 14 years in service	✕ 99% / 80%	✓ replace the part now	100%
O-1027 · Missing clue	Inbound demo request, $3,200 first-year deal	✕ 99% / 22%	✕ assign a sales rep → drop the lead	0%
O-1028 · Red herring	Online order #599758: $73 basket	✕ 65% / 16%	✕ cancel the order → ship the order	89%
O-1029 · High stakes	Small-business loan application: $112,000 over 3 years	✕ 29% / 10%	✓ decline the loan	100%
O-1030 · Easy	Inbound demo request, $31,000 first-year deal	✕ 44% / 5%	✓ send the automated email sequence	100%
O-1031 · Rare outcome	Online order #973229: $545 basket	✕ 80% / 23%	✕ cancel the order → hold for manual review	84%
O-1032 · Adds up	Small-business loan application: $21,000 over 2 years	✕ 98% / 52%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	81%
O-1033 · Missing clue	Boiler feed pump on line 2, 4 years in service	✕ 96% / 31%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	90%
O-1034 · Red herring	Inbound demo request, $2,400 first-year deal	✕ 53% / 12%	✕ drop the lead → send the automated email sequence	72%
O-1035 · High stakes	Online order #380045: $700 basket	✓ 13% / 8%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1036 · Easy	Press motor on line 2, 10 years in service	✕ 4% / 1%	✕ replace the part now → keep it running	0%
O-1037 · Rare outcome	Inbound demo request, $3,250 first-year deal	✕ 35% / 9%	✓ drop the lead	100%
O-1038 · Adds up	Online order #820072: $71 basket	✕ 99% / 87%	✓ cancel the order	100%
O-1039 · Missing clue	Small-business loan application: $52,000 over 5 years	✓ 8% / 6%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1040 · Red herring	Coolant pump on line 1, 14 years in service	✕ 62% / 20%	✕ replace the part now → keep it running	0%
O-1041 · High stakes	Inbound demo request, $2,700 first-year deal	✕ 0% / 4%	✕ drop the lead → assign a sales rep	97%
O-1042 · Easy	Small-business loan application: $17,000 over 5 years	✕ 95% / 43%	✓ decline the loan	100%
O-1043 · Rare outcome	Boiler feed pump on line 7, 14 years in service	✕ 75% / 21%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	82%
O-1044 · Adds up	Inbound demo request, $2,650 first-year deal	✕ 97% / 50%	✕ assign a sales rep → send the automated email sequence	70%
O-1045 · Missing clue	Online order #739291: $185 basket	✕ 99% / 57%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1046 · Red herring	Small-business loan application: $15,000 over 3 years	✕ 35% / 12%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	0%
O-1047 · High stakes	Air compressor on line 8, 14 years in service	✕ 1% / 6%	✓ stop it for an inspection	100%
O-1048 · Easy	Online order #728467: $440 basket	✕ 98% / 53%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1049 · Rare outcome	Small-business loan application: $11,000 over 2 years	✕ 68% / 6%	✕ decline the loan → approve the loan	0%
O-1050 · Adds up	Air compressor on line 7, 7 years in service	✕ 100% / 84%	✓ replace the part now	100%
O-1051 · Missing clue	Inbound demo request, $3,250 first-year deal	✕ 98% / 11%	✕ assign a sales rep → drop the lead	0%
O-1052 · Red herring	Online order #552300: $43 basket	✕ 82% / 22%	✕ cancel the order → ship the order	53%
O-1053 · High stakes	Small-business loan application: $13,000 over 5 years	✕ 44% / 6%	✓ decline the loan	100%
O-1054 · Easy	Inbound demo request, $84,500 first-year deal	✕ 82% / 39%	✓ assign a sales rep	100%
O-1055 · Rare outcome	Online order #914426: $705 basket	✕ 71% / 20%	✓ hold for manual review	100%
O-1056 · Adds up	Small-business loan application: $114,000 over 2 years	✕ 97% / 44%	✕ decline the loan → approve only against collateral	91%
O-1057 · Missing clue	Boiler feed pump on line 7, 14 years in service	✕ 3% / 8%	✕ replace the part now → stop it for an inspection	39%
O-1058 · Red herring	Inbound demo request, $3,750 first-year deal	✕ 88% / 19%	✕ assign a sales rep → send the automated email sequence	17%
O-1059 · High stakes	Online order #381274: $720 basket	✓ 10% / 7%	✓ hold for manual review	100%

Probability: the model's answer / the right one. Value: 100% for the best action, 0% for the worst. A case is worked through on the Odds page.